What is up with the weather?

Muskoka is smashing records for temperature in March

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MUSKOKA — Anyone who headed south on March Break to escape the last of the winter weather may very well have wondered why they bothered. They could have enjoyed almost as much sun by staying put, while Muskoka broke numerous records for the warmest days in March.
So far, we’ve broken four records in nine days, with another three record-breakers on the horizon on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday — if the weatherman is right.
Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips said that’s hard to do because Muskoka’s records go back to 1934.
“Muskoka’s got long records, so it’s always hard to break a record in Muskoka,” he said.
On March 12, the beginning of March Break, Muskoka broke the previous record of 12.1 degrees that was set in 1977, with temperatures reaching 13 degrees. The mercury on March 18 skyrocketed to 22.9 degrees. The last record was 15.6 degrees in 1966.
“You broke it by more than seven degrees,” said Phillips. “That is unheard of. You normally break records in my business by a tenth of a degree, so that was something.”
Monday the temperature rose to 23.8 degrees, almost 10 degrees warmer than the previous March 19 record of 13.9 degrees in 1946.
“I mean that’s just a different world,” said Phillips.
Over the next few days, all the thermometer has to do to break records is to rise above 16 degrees. It’s expected to be in the 20s.
The previous warmest day ever in Muskoka from January to March since 1934 was 25.6 on March 28, 1948. If the temperature goes up to 26 degrees today (Wednesday) as predicted, that record will be broken as well.
An early spring means it could be an early bug season as well.
Douglas Currie, senior curator of entomology at the Royal Ontario Museum, said he can’t predict how much earlier the season will be, but said as a rule of thumb, blackflies come out in Muskoka about the same time as the first buds on the trees.
He said usually by the first week of July the blackflies are pretty much finished. This year could be very different.
If they come out as early as the buds this year, “by the time people start their summer holidays, there’ll be no wisp of them,” he said. “That’s because they’ll have shot their bolt.”
There may also be fewer blackflies and mosquitoes this year if the water levels are down.
“If the water levels are a lot lower than normal, then the mortality of eggs could be higher,” he said.
But that could be wishful thinking.
According to Amanda Vincent, research management technician at the Bracebridge MNR, the water levels are normal this year.
“The water levels here in Muskoka are very typical for a spring melt,” said Vincent in an email interview.
“This year looks very much like last year and other years previous — just two to three weeks early,” she said.
The warm weather could bring a double-edged sword to Muskoka residents in the long run. While many people may be embracing the warm weather, there are others who are bracing for its impact.
Ray Bonenberg, president of the Ontario Maple Syrup Producers Association and a 40-year veteran of syrup making, said the joke in his industry is that if you were to ask a maple syrup producer how the season will fare, they “will tell you in May.”
However, this year, the season is no joke. In fact, according to Bonenberg, it could be disastrous.
“It is supposed to cool off by Friday, but it is not good when you get weather this warm,” he said. “The tree sometimes thinks it is late April and will … stop producing (sap) and put leaves on. Right now, I’m hoping for a cloudy week so the sun doesn’t convince the trees to bud out.”
What producers could be left with, according to Bonenberg, would be a very short season with little or no syrup, and perhaps bad-tasting syrup at that.
“It would be like molasses. I have never seen anything like this. Who has seen plus 27 in the middle of March for five straight days?”
According to Katya Riley, co-owner of Brooklands Farm in Muskoka Lakes Township, the sap has already stopped running.
“We’re at 50 per cent of an average year of production.”
They usually get about 0.75 litres to a tap of syrup in an average year, she said. This year they’ve gotten less than half, at about 0.33 litres to a tap.
“Very scary,” she said. “We’ve never gotten 0.33 per tap.”
The strawberries at Brooklands Farm are also looking forward to spring and are already pushing up through the straw.
“We’ve got to take the straw off, but we’re scared to because of the cold,” she said.
Another sudden, hard freeze would damage all the crops. For a farm that depends on produce for its income, that could be a challenge.
“It’s very unsettling,” she said.
Strawberries pushing through the ground now means strawberry season could be up to a month early. That would be damaging for sales that usually come from tourists and families after their children are on summer break.
“I don’t even know what we’re going to do with those berries,” she said.
Phillips said the reason for the warm weather is there was no winter in Muskoka.
“The snow has disappeared,” he said. “The ground is not frozen, the ice is getting out of the rivers and lakes, and every time this warm air goes northward, it’s not chilled by what it sees. It just arrives the same temperature that it leaves.”
“We’re talking about April being warmer than normal and near normal precipitation,” he said.
That’s a good combination, he said.
However, a lot of people feel they’re going to pay for the warm weather so far in March, but Phillips doesn’t see that coming.
“We could still see a skiff of snow, though I don’t know how,” he said, adding the flavour of the summer looks like it will also be warmer than normal.

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